> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.contributor.info/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Lottery Factor

> Find out if your project has a single point of failure — see how many contributors you can afford to lose before critical work stalls.

The Lottery Factor measures knowledge concentration risk — how many contributors could you lose before the project fails? It answers: *if key contributors won the lottery and left tomorrow, how resilient is the project?*

<Frame>
  <img src="https://mintcdn.com/dinnerpeoplellc/vT70lEEqGRLXcHbv/images/features/lottery-factor.png?fit=max&auto=format&n=vT70lEEqGRLXcHbv&q=85&s=61e74b42279713a37f1d594f8cb69522" alt="Lottery factor analysis showing contributor risk levels" width="1565" height="914" data-path="images/features/lottery-factor.png" />
</Frame>

## How It Works

contributor.info analyzes the last 30 days of merged pull requests to calculate what percentage of contributions come from each contributor. The result is a risk score based on how concentrated that work is.

**Example calculation:**

A project with 10 contributors where the top 2 contributors authored 85% of merged PRs has a **High Risk** lottery factor. If those 2 contributors left, the project would lose the majority of its active development capacity.

```
Top contributor:   52% of merged PRs
2nd contributor:   33% of merged PRs
Remaining 8:       15% of merged PRs
─────────────────────────────────────
Top 2 total:       85%  →  High Risk
```

## Risk Levels

🟢 **Low Risk** — Well-distributed contributions. Top 5 contributors account for less than 60% of work. The project can sustain contributor turnover.

🟡 **Medium Risk** — Moderate concentration. A few contributors are doing most of the work, but the project isn't fully dependent on any single person.

🔴 **High Risk** — Heavy reliance on a small number of people. Losing one or two contributors could stall or block the project.

## Thresholds

| Condition                          | Risk Level     |
| ---------------------------------- | -------------- |
| Top 5 contributors \< 60% of work  | 🟢 Low Risk    |
| Top 2–3 contributors > 80% of work | 🔴 High Risk   |
| In between                         | 🟡 Medium Risk |

## YOLO Coders

contributor.info also identifies contributors who commit directly to the main branch without opening pull requests. These direct pushes:

* Bypass code review, which can introduce bugs or security issues
* May bypass CI/CD checks configured only for pull requests
* Create gaps in the audit trail

**Example:** A repository where 1 contributor makes 30% of changes via direct commits to `main` represents both a lottery factor risk and a process risk.

## Actions for High Risk

If your project shows High Risk:

1. **Add beginner-friendly issues** — Label `good first issue` tickets to invite new contributors and spread knowledge.
2. **Organize knowledge sharing** — Pair high-concentration contributors with others through regular syncs or review rotations.
3. **Start a mentorship program** — Actively bring newer contributors up to speed on critical areas.
4. **Document everything** — Architecture decisions, onboarding guides, and runbooks reduce the cost of contributor turnover.

## Data Window

The lottery factor is based on **30 days of merged pull requests**. This window captures recent activity rather than historical contributions, so it reflects the current state of your project's contributor health.